欧州のガス・電力価格の基礎的条件：2009年第2四半期

European Gas and Power Price Fundamentals: Q2 2009

発行	Datamonitor
出版日	2009年05月	商品コード	89833
ページ情報	英文 75 pages
価格	US$ 2,795 換算 ¥ 225,528 (税抜) PDF by E-mail (Global Site License) US$ 6,988 換算 ¥ 563,861 (税抜) PDF by E-mail (Global Site License)

概要
原文目次
関連レポート

原文目次

Abstract

Introduction

The growing role of wholesale traded energy markets across Europe creates a greater need for players throughout the value chain to be aware of the latest market movements and developments. From the wellhead or power station gate to the end-user, volatility in the spot and forward price of power and gas is creating an increasingly challenging environment for all market participants.

Scope of this research

An examination of the wholesale gas price trends in Europe' s three key markets - the UK NBP, the Zeebrugge Hub and the Dutch TTF.
An assessment of traded power prices in the UK, Belgian, Dutch, German and French wholesale power markets.
Insight and analysis into the impact of wholesale markets on the wholesale / retail price interface.

Research and analysis highlights

Q1 sees prices fall further as gas demand contraction takes immediate effect on the far end of the curve

Price spreads are a fundamental tool in assessing market sentiment in addition to supply and demand factors

Datamonitor' s gas price outlook is bearish with the effects of demand contraction going out to 2013

Key reasons to purchase this research

Establish the current level of wholesale and retail energy prices and the fundamental drivers behind movements in the traded value of gas and power.
Understand how wholesale pricing impacts different facets of the value chain, identifying the potential to limit risk through hedging strategies.
Forecast future developments in the traded price of gas and power in order to successfully take advantage of arbitrage opportunities.

DATAMONITOR VIEW

CATALYST

SUMMARY

Executive price summary: Q2 2009 saw commodities tumble as financial market woes took a firm grip on the economy
Executive price summary: the prompt market is not immune to the Q2 commodity price destruction
- Q1 2009 saw prices fall further as gas demand contraction took immediate effect on the far end of the curve
- Prompt gas markets have also seen significant decreases in Day-Ahead prices
- Baseload power prices continue to fall with the economic contraction
- Prompt power prices were significantly lower during Q1 2009
- Peaks power prices dipped in line with the reduction in consumption during Q1
- Crude oil prices reacted to the economic downturn, but showed an upward movement through Q1 2009
- The pound sterling continued to slide against the US dollar and the euro
- The Emissions Trading Scheme produced low EU Allowances prices as carbon trading sank to new lows for the 2009 contract
- Although the FTSE continued to decline, this was significantly less than a barrel of Brent crude
- Despite the recession, coal contracts showed signs of stabilizing after heavy losses through 2008
Price spreads are a fundamental tool in assessing market sentiment in addition to supply and demand factors (1/2)
- UK gas injections are in favor of stock-build as the economy shrinks
- European storage is nearing capacity as bearish prices reflect the macro-fundamentals
- UK gas storage is at a year-on-year high due to the reversal of NBP gas prices
- Increased flows and storage data also explain the decline in EU wholesale prices
- Annual spreads at the NBP on the quarterly product have been affected by volatile oil prices
- Quarterly strips at the NBP explain year-on-year differentials and major changes in market sentiment
- On average, the quarterly strip spread has grown since 2008
- Quarterly strip spreads are also a good illustration of how price differentials impact business performance
- The Quarter-Ahead differential is significantly favorable to 2009 buy-side trading
- Seasonal strips concur and highlight the risks involved in buying too far ahead of delivery
- Timing and volume risks are essentially driving the weighted average cost of gas
- Day-Ahead price spreads at the NBP are most volatile, at any significant level, from the start of calendar Q1
- Geographic spreads are tight, with no room to arbitrage via the EU gas hubs (1/2)
- Gas consumption is on the up, despite the economic downturn
- Monitoring spreads is important for commercial and regulatory reasons
- Gas markets are in transition, with the future promising further liquidity (1/2)
Datamonitor' s gas price outlook is bearish, with the effects of demand contraction going out to 2013
- Datamonitor' s gas price outlook is bearish, with the effects of demand contraction going out further than 2013
- Datamonitor' s power price outlook indicates that capacity is sufficient and the downturn will soften the forward curve
- Datamonitor expects stability in peak-load pricing if the economic environment does not drastically alter
- Datamonitor' s power price outlook indicates that capacity is sufficient and the downturn will soften the forward curve
Wholesale gas and power prices
- The NBP slid through Q1 as the gas market retreated in Europe
- The TTF dipped at both ends of the curve during Q1 2009
- Belgian gas prices softened in line with the fundamentals at the NBP and TTF
- In light of eroding demand, UK power prices continued to soften
- Dutch power markets softened significantly at both ends of the curve
- Falling power prices were also evident in Belgium trading
- French wholesale power prices softened with the rest of Europe
- German power prices softened as demand contracted around northwest Europe
Retail gas and electricity prices
- 2008 was not a good year for UK gas prices, but Q1 2009 saw some reduction in end-user costs
- UK suppliers will gradually pass on the NBP wholesale cost savings to domestic retail customers
- Belgian retail gas bills illustrated a lagged fall during Q1 2009
- Domestic and SME retail prices in Holland have only been cut once since May 2007
- Austrian domestic retail gas customers have seen relatively static bills in comparison to industry customers
- End-user Danish gas prices have shown co-movement in recent quarters, indicating systematic pass-through
- The domestic retail gas price in Finland is one of the lowest in northwest Europe
- French retail end-users have always enjoyed regulated tariffs
- Retail prices in Germany illustrated downward responsiveness to Q3 2008 gas commodity prices
- Italian industrial customers have recently seen their gas bills dip in line with EU commodity markets
- Spanish retail customers have only recently seen fluctuations in their end-user gas prices
- Retail gas prices in Switzerland are easily distinguished by segmentation
- UK power prices have fallen significantly through Q4 2008 and Q1 2009, which will need to be reflected in end-user bills
- UK suppliers have been slow to pass on cost savings from the wholesale to the retail market
- Austrian power bills have illustrated a relatively flat trend over time
- On average, Belgian households have faced rising power bills since mid-2007
- The Dutch retail market is more responsive for domestic customers than non-domestic customers
- German retail prices have shown only marginal increases, despite high wholesale prices
- Regulated French tariffs will soon come under pressure from competition authorities to be more cost reflective
- Denmark has seen further increases to its end-user bills, making them some of the highest in Europe
- Finnish households pay more than twice the price that industrial and commercial customers pay for their power
- Italian power prices have reduced significantly through Q1 2009
- Spain shows one of the biggest differentials between household and industry power costs
- Sweden' s retail market benefits from its key nuclear power producer, Vattenfall
- Switzerland' s power prices are tightly spread for all users

APPENDIX

This brief builds upon Datamonitor' s extensive pricing proposition
Glossary
- This brief contains a number of industry standard terms
Our analysis builds on other sources to provide greater insight
- Further Reading
- Extended Methodology
We assess the profitability of fossil fuel plants across northwest Europe
Our bespoke services can be tailored to your specific needs
Ask the analyst
Datamonitor consulting
Disclaimer

FIGURES

Figure: Executive price summary: Q2 2009 saw commodities tumble as financial market woes took a firm grip on the economy
Figure: Executive price summary: the prompt market is not immune to the Q2 commodity price destruction
Figure: Q1 2009 saw prices fall further as gas demand contraction took immediate effect on the far end of the curve
Figure: Prompt gas markets have also seen significant decreases in Day-Ahead prices
Figure: Baseload power prices continue to fall with the economic contraction
Figure: Prompt power prices were significantly lower during Q1 2009
Figure: Peaks power prices dipped in line with the reduction in consumption during Q1
Figure: Crude oil prices reacted to the economic downturn, but showed an upward movement through Q1 2009
Figure: The pound sterling continued to slide against the US dollar and the euro
Figure: The Emissions Trading Scheme produced low EU Allowances prices as carbon trading sank to new lows for the 2009 contract
Figure: Although the FTSE continued to decline, this was significantly less than a barrel of Brent crude
Figure: Metrics
Figure: Despite the recession, coal contracts showed signs of stabilizing after heavy losses through 2008
Figure: Metrics
Figure: UK gas injections are in favor of stock-build as the economy shrinks
Figure: UK gas storage is at a year-on-year high due to the reversal of NBP gas prices
Figure: Annual spreads at the NBP on the quarterly product have been affected by volatile oil prices
Figure: Quarterly strips at the NBP explain year-on-year differentials and major changes in market sentiment
Figure: Quarterly strip spreads are also a good illustration of how price differentials impact business performance
Figure: Seasonal strips concur and highlight the risks involved in buying too far ahead of delivery
Figure: Day-Ahead price spreads at the NBP are most volatile, at any significant level, from the start of calendar Q1
Figure: Gas consumption is on the up, despite the economic downturn
Figure: Datamonitor' s gas price outlook is bearish, with the effects of demand contraction going out to 2013
Figure: Datamonitor' s gas price outlook is bearish, with the effects of demand contraction going out further than 2013
Figure: Datamonitor' s power price outlook indicates that capacity is sufficient and the downturn will soften the forward curve
Figure: Datamonitor expects stability in peak-load pricing if the economic environment does not drastically alter
Figure: Baseload
Figure: Peaks
Figure: The NBP slid through Q1 as the gas market retreated in Europe
Figure: Metrics
Figure: The TTF dipped at both ends of the curve during Q1 2009
Figure: Metrics
Figure: Belgian gas prices softened in line with the fundamentals at the NBP and TTF
Figure: Metrics
Figure: In light of eroding demand, UK power prices continued to soften
Figure: Metrics
Figure: Dutch power markets softened significantly at both ends of the curve
Figure: Metrics
Figure: Falling power prices were also evident in Belgium trading
Figure: Metrics
Figure: French wholesale power prices softened with the rest of Europe
Figure: Metrics
Figure: German power prices softened as demand contracted around northwest Europe
Figure: Metrics
Figure: 2008 was not a good year for UK gas prices, but Q1 2009 saw some reduction in end-user costs
Figure: UK suppliers will gradually pass on the NBP wholesale cost savings to domestic retail customers
Figure: Belgian retail gas bills illustrated a lagged fall during Q1 2009
Figure: Domestic and SME retail prices in Holland have only been cut once since May 2007
Figure: Austrian domestic retail gas customers have seen relatively static bills in comparison to industry customers
Figure: End-user Danish gas prices have shown co-movement in recent quarters, indicating systematic pass-through
Figure: The domestic retail gas price in Finland is one of the lowest in northwest Europe
Figure: French retail end-users have always enjoyed regulated tariffs
Figure: Retail prices in Germany illustrated downward responsiveness to Q3 2008 gas commodity prices
Figure: Italian industrial customers have recently seen their gas bills dip in line with EU commodity markets
Figure: Spanish retail customers have only recently seen fluctuations in their end-user gas prices
Figure: Retail gas prices in Switzerland are easily distinguished by segmentation
Figure: UK power prices have fallen significantly through Q4 2008 and Q1 2009, which will need to be reflected in end-user bills
Figure: UK suppliers have been slow to pass on cost savings from the wholesale to the retail market
Figure: Austrian power bills have illustrated a relatively flat trend over time
Figure: On average, Belgian households have faced rising power bills since mid-2007
Figure: The Dutch retail market is more responsive for domestic customers than non-domestic customers
Figure: German retail prices have shown only marginal increases, despite high wholesale prices
Figure: Regulated French tariffs will soon come under pressure from competition authorities to be more cost reflective
Figure: Denmark has seen further increases to its end-user bills, making them some of the highest in Europe
Figure: Finnish households pay more than twice the price that industrial and commercial customers pay for their power
Figure: Italian power prices have reduced significantly through Q1 2009
Figure: Spain shows one of the biggest differentials between household and industry power costs
Figure: Sweden' s retail market benefits from its key nuclear power producer, Vattenfall
Figure: Switzerland' s power prices are tightly spread for all users
Figure: Energy pricing proposition
Figure: Generation spread methodology