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市場調査レポート
不況時におけるユーティリティ事業：B2Bエネルギー市場における戦略的対応
Utilities in the Downturn: Strategic Responses in B2B Energy Markets
| 発行 |
Datamonitor |
| 出版日 |
2009年04月 |
商品コード |
86414 |
| ページ情報 |
英文 24 pages |
| 価格 |
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Abstract
Introduction
What started as a mortgage market crisis has quickly developed into what may
the most severe recession in a generation. As economies contract, utilities
will see industrial demand weaken. Attempts to mitigate the effects through
tariff reductions are self-defeating in the long run. Utilities are better
served by identifying specific risks within their portfolio and tailoring a
bespoke response.
Scope of this research
- An overview of how the recession is affecting utilities and which of the
EU states are seeing the steepest decline in their gas & power demand.
- A risk analysis model to determine which types of clients are expected to
reduce energy demand and the manner in which that reduction will take place.
- Analysis of individual sectors and performance forecasts; with an overview
of how each sector is expected to perform.
- A set of strategies to mitigate the effects of the downturn on their
revenue streams - what utilties should look for when shaping their portfolio.
Research and analysis highlights
B2B gas and power demand is contracting across Europe. For the first time
since WW2 we are witnessing a global contraction in trade and production. The
impact this is having on B2B energy demand varies across the EU. So far
Eastern Europe is seeing the sharpest contraction, on account of high energy
intensity levels and reliance on heavy industry.
Utilities operating in B2B markets face four essential demand side risks as a
result of the recession. These can be segmented into Volume and Credit risks,
revealing not only the scale of the problem but the nature in which demand
contraction is likely to manifest itself.
Utilities are not powerless to act; a range of weapons can be deployed to
minimise the threats to revenue arising from B2B demand contraction. Utilities
must augment their view of risk profiling to cater for the specific challenegs
their clients are facing.
Key reasons to purchase this research
- Understand the implications of the downturn for the European gas and power
industry.
- Develop innovative client profiling and risk management techniques.
- Plan your strategy to not only survive the recession but to exploit the
range of opportunities which the downturn presents.
Table of Contents
DATAMONITOR VIEW
ANALYSIS
- B2B demand for gas and power is contracting across Europe
- The global economy is contracting; for the first time in decades we are
witnessing a reduction in global trade
- The European economy is in recession but the contraction is expected to
ease from 2010
- Analysis of energy consumption by sector against GDP composition by
country can add additional insight into energy consumption outlook
- Utilities will not be immune to the recession; energy consumption does
respond to contractions and expansions in the economy
- Utilities operating in B2B markets are likely to find the recession more
difficult to manage than those focused on B2C
- Liquidity contraction will present M&A opportunities for the more
creditworthy market players
- Utilities have employed different tactics for raising funds as a means
to finance debt
- Utilities must augment their view of market segmentation to tailor their
response according to specific risks
- Utilities essentially face four potential demand-side risks resulting
from the economic downturn
- Utilities can assess clients according to volume risk and credit risk
- According to these risk metrics, Datamonitor scores the economic sectors
on vulnerability in a downturn
- Most sectors in the European economy will contract in 2009 but rebound in
2010
- Analysis of energy consumption by sector reveals that several of the
largest consumers carry a high degree of volume risk
- Europe' s steel sector is set to contract sharply through 2009, with some
signs of possible recovery in early 2010
- The struggling construction sector serves as a useful bell-weather for
related industries and concurrently for energy demand
- Europe' s automotive industry is struggling with the credit crunch, but
remains fundamentally viable, unlike manufacturers in the US
- The retail sector is struggling with reduced credit availability and low
consumer confidence
- Over-capacity in the UK retail market means that the contraction will be
even sharper, producing credit risk in this sector
- Different sections of the retail sector will suffer, as over supply and
falling demand force business out of the market
- Manufacturing has suffered an extremely sharp downturn, but the rate of
contraction is already slowing
- Utilities are not powerless to act; a range of weapons can be deployed to
minimize the threats to revenue arising from B2B demand contraction
- Utilities can deploy their response according to client-specific risks
- Supply of credit insurance has tightened as firms have sought to protect
themselves from bad debt by effectively out-sourcing risk management
- Margining is appropriate in sectors with many small firms whose output
does not determine energy demand, such as retail
- Credit scoring is generally of limited value, but can help in targeting
stable clients when margining revenues
- Although turbulent, the B2B market offers safe havens and opportunities
- State institutions and regulated private industry represent a safe haven
for utilities during the downturn, but account for little overall consumption
- Remedies should be deployed according to the risks that a client entails
under the current market conditions
- Utilities should shape their portfolio according to market size, and the
volume and credit risk that each sector represents
- The nature of the credit crisis means that industrial output should not
continue to suffer beyond 2010; energy demand will pick up albeit slowly
- Large utilities are in a position to make the recession work for them
through cheap acquisitions and investment in infrastructure
APPENDIX
- Further reading
- Ask the analyst
- Datamonitor consulting
- Disclaimer
FIGURES
- Figure: EU27 macroeconomic Indicators, 2005 - 10
- Figure: Eastern Europe will see a steep decline in energy demand
- Figure: There is a weak but positive correlation between energy
consumption and economic growth
- Figure: B2B energy markets are more income elastic than B2C
- Figure: Utilities' Revenue Threats
- Figure: TypeFigTitleHere
- Figure: UK energy consumption by economic sector
- Figure: EU steel output year-on-year percentage change, 2004 - 10
- Figure: EU construction output year-on-year percentage change, 2004 - 10
- Figure: EU automotive industry output year-on-year percentage change, 2004
- 10
- Figure: Consumer confidence index 2008 - 09
- Figure: Average annual growth rate in retail volumes across four decades
- Figure: Individual Retail Sub-Sector Outlooks
- Figure: The UK retail sector is set to shrink by £1.7 billion in 2009
- Figure: EU manufacturing contracted sharply in H2 2008
- Figure: Risk Solution Matrix
- Figure: Sector Profiles, Risks and Responses
- Figure: The traditional view of segmentation cannot respond effectively to
recession
- Figure: Relative risk and size of sector by energy consumption
- Figure: Average EU carbon steel price indexed to February 2007
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