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市場調査レポート
欧州の卸売ガス価格の重要影響因子：2009〜2013年
Key Factors Driving European Wholesale Gas Prices 2009 to 2013
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当商品の販売は、2011年07月19日を持ちまして終了しました。
Abstract
Overview
Introduction
In recent years, wholesale energy prices have shown unprecedented volatility
across all commodities and markets. Significant levels of wholesale price
volatility have now become established as a key industry dynamic players
across the value chain are having to build into their forward planning.
Scope
- Understanding of the key factors driving prices over the coming five years
- Insight into the relative importance and magnitude of individual factors
impacting the main European wholesale gas markets
- Understanding of how changing market fundamentals can impact future
wholesale price dynamics
Highlights
Increasingly Europe will seek to fill its growing supply/demand gap by
importing greater volumes of LNG. As such, LNG will continue its rapid growth,
further exposing European utilities to a more global set of price dynamics and
market fundamental influences.
Even the most liquid of wholesale markets remain influenced by oil price
dynamics.
Significant volumes of gas storage capacity, afford Germany, Italy and France
greater degrees of insulation to wholesale volatility.
Reasons to Purchase
- Understand future price dynamics and movements
- Gain insight into the possible impact of individual price factors on the
wholesale markets in Europe
- Understand the relative importance of market fundamentals in the coming
years
Table of Contents
- ABOUT DATAMONITOR
- OVERVIEW
- This product has been designed for delivery in a PowerPoint format
(.ppt).
- Please select the PowerPoint option from the download menu at the side
of the page
- Introduction
- This brief highlights the key factors that will steer European
wholesale gas prices in the coming five years. It also contains price
scenario forecasts for the main European wholesale gas markets.
- Key reasons to read this report
- Wholesale gas markets have been bullish for a sustained period
- In common with the UK NBP market, the Belgian Zeebrugge wholesale
market has shown upward movement
- The Dutch TTF has remained softer compared to Zeebrugge but still
displays bullish sentiment in tracking the main markets
- A number of core factors will continue to influence wholesale gas
markets
- The ability of European gas markets to meet demand indigenously is
declining, putting further upward pressure on wholesale prices
- The low levels of gas self sufficiency in most parts of the EU will
exert an increasing apparent impact on wholesale gas prices
- Europe has seen a strong increase in LNG consumption in recent years,
creating further upward price pressures
- France and Spain are Europe' s main LNG consumers and as such are the
most impacted by wider wholesale price influences
- Significant volumes of gas storage capacity, afford Germany, Italy and
France greater degrees of insulation to wholesale volatility
- The existence of high pipeline capacity margins in Europe curtails the
potential for capacity shortage induced wholesale price volatility
- LNG capacity margins remain strong underlining supply side
difficulties and costs rather than regasification availability
- Seasonal weather variations share an important relationship with
wholesale energy prices
- The LCPD will ultimately take a sizeable chunk of coal generation
offline, boosting both gas demand and wholesale price levels
- Even the most liquid of wholesale markets remain influenced by oil
price dynamics
- Despite political friction, Russia will be crucial to meeting Europe' s
gas demand in the long term
- Datamonitor has developed a series of wholesale price scenarios using
its European Wholesale Energy Price Scenarios Model
- Under the High Price Scenario supply constraints serve to exert an
upward impact on wholesale gas prices across Europe
- The High Price Scenario sees a squeeze in both spare LNG and pipeline
capacity, whilst climatic factors drive prices higher
- The High Price Scenario sees energy policy creating greater levels of
upward pressure on wholesale gas prices
- Under the Business As Usual Price Scenario supply squeezes show some
signs of easing
- Under the Business As Usual Price Scenario supply capacity and
seasonality factors prevent significant or concerted price spikes
- Energy Policy does not unduly drive prices upwards under the LCPD
- Under the Base Case Price Scenario the wholesale price effects of the
ongoing supply/demand squeeze are reversed
- Both LNG and pipeline capacity remains plentiful under the Base Case
Price Scenario
- Under the Base Case Price Scenario energy policy acts in order to
constrain and ease wholesale price pressures
- Appendix
- List of Figures
- Figure 1: As Europe' s most liquid wholesale market, the NBP has shown
strong upward price trends and volatility in recent years
- Figure 2: In common with the UK NBP market, the Belgian Zeebrugge
wholesale market has shown upward movement
- Figure 3: The Dutch TTF has remained softer compared to Zeebrugge but
still displays bullish sentiment in tracking the main markets
- Figure 4: Declining European gas self sufficiency will continue to exert
an impact on wholesale price fundamentals
- Figure 5: Markets with low levels of indigenous gas production have
greater potential for wholesale volatility
- Figure 6: The growth in the role of LNG in Europe brings with it a
change in pricing fundamentals
- Figure 7: Markets with a larger reliance on LNG are more exposed to
non-European price fundamentals
- Figure 8: Longer term price volatility potential will be diminished by
the development of new storage capacity
- Figure 9: Gas markets in the EU 27 generally have scope to easily import
greater volumes of pipeline gas
- Figure 10: Significant scope exists to import greater volumes of LNG
into both new and existing sites
- Figure 11: The price effect of seasonality in the energy markets will
continue to be significant
- Figure 12: Even the most liquid of wholesale markets remain influenced
by oil price dynamics
- Figure 13: Despite political friction, Russia will be crucial to meeting
Europe' s gas demand in the long term
- Figure 14: Datamonitor' s "European Wholesale Energy Price Scenarios
Model" uses core market drivers to develop price scenarios
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