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市場調査レポート
英国の消費者信用市場
The UK Consumer Credit Market in 2006 and Future Outlook (Market Focus)
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当商品の販売は、2011年07月19日を持ちまして終了しました。
Introduction
Following a muted performance in 2005, the consumer credit market delivered a
worse performance in 2006. Indeed, after more than a decade of strong growth,
the consumer credit market has now slowed. Moreover, the majority of
individual product lines performed badly over the year. So what' s in store for
the consumer credit market over the next five years?
Scope
- Covers unsecured personal loans, credit cards, overdrafts, motor finance
and retail finance in the UK.
- Provides forecasts under 3 different scenarios for the consumer credit
market as a whole as well as for individual product lines
- Examines the factors that have impacted on the consumer credit market over
the course of 2006, as well as the previous four years.
Report Highlights
Constrained by various factors such as a weaker labor market, increasing
consumer debts and low consumer confidence, gross lending amounted to £207.8
billion at the end of December 2006, representing a contraction of 4.5 per
cent on the 2005 level (£217.5 billion).
Unsecured personal loans and credit cards remain the dominant products in the
consumer credit market in terms of balances outstanding. However, credit cards
lost share over 2006 as a result of its poor performance and its share now
stands at 26.2 per cent, while personal loans continued to gain market share,
standing now at 56.6 per cent.
Though the consumer credit market suffered over 2006, it has nevertheless seen
significant growth over the last decade. Yet motor and retail finance have
been exceptions to the rule, with both product lines slowly losing market
share to direct lending. Indeed, over the last few years a number of leading
financiers have exited the POS market.
Reasons to Purchase
- Gain access to the latest market sizing and forecasting data for the
consumer credit market to place your performance in context to the market' s.
- Understand how the market is changing and evaluate any opportunities for
your business arising from these changes.
- Plan your future strategy with confidence using Datamonitor' s scenario
based forecasts of UK residential gross advances to 2011.
Table of Contents
- CATALYST
- SUMMARY
- ANALYSIS
- The consumer credit market delivered a poor performance in 2006
- Advances dropped once again, though balances grew by a small degree
- A number of factors can be attributed to the consumer credit market' s
poor performance
- Despite a well performing UK economy in 2006, the consumer credit
market did not follow suit
- Successive base rate rises had a slowing effect on borrowing over
2006
- Despite full employment, unemployment increased slightly over 2006,
contributing to the consumer credit market' s contraction
- Though the housing market outperformed expectations in 2006, the
consumer credit market still faltered
- Further analysis highlighted that most individual product lines
performed badly over 2006
- In terms of balances outstanding, most products contracted except for
retail finance and personal loans
- Fluctuations in the share of the total consumer credit market show
personal loans to have gained significantly
- In terms of gross advances, all consumer credit products contracted
except for overdrafts
- Fluctuations in performance saw credit cards and overdrafts gain
more share of the total consumer credit market
- Meanwhile, point of sale finance continued to struggle
- Motor finance had another poor year in 2006
- Retail finance also had another poor year in 2006
- What' s next for the consumer credit market?
- forecasting model assesses the relationship of macroeconomic factors
with respect to consumer credit products
- Under the neutral view, new lending in the consumer credit market
falls in 2007 and picks up thereafter
- The consumer credit market will reach £229.4 billion in 2011
- In terms of individual product lines, virtually all products will
suffer in 2007 but will pick up thereafter
- Under a pessimistic view of the economy, the consumer credit market
will contract significantly in 2007 before picking up again in 2008
- The consumer credit market will dip to a low of £199.8 billion in
2007 under a pessimistic scenario
- In terms of individual product lines, retail and motor finance both
continue their decline, with overdrafts performing best of all
- Under an optimistic view of the economy, the consumer credit market
will begin prospering again
- The consumer credit market will expand at an annual average rate of
3.0 per cent to reach £238.1 billion in 2011
- In terms of individual product lines, retail finance will be the
only underperforming product
- APPENDIX
- Supplementary data
- Methodology
- Forecasting methodology
- Choice of economic variables
- Model outputs
- Bespoke scenario based forecasting
- Definitions
- General definitions
- Bank of England base rate
- Balances outstanding
- CAGR
- Consumer credit
- Gross advances
- Overdraft
- Definitions of point of sale motor and retail finance products
- Motor finance products available at the point of sale
- Retail finance products available at the point of sale
- Further reading
- European consumer credit reports
- UK consumer credit reports
- UK consumer credit briefings
- Forthcoming consumer credit briefings
- Relevant links
- Ask the analyst
- Disclaimer
- List of Tables
- Table 1: Balances outstanding and gross advances in the consumer
credit market, 2002-2006
- Table 2: Consumer credit balances outstanding by product, 2002-2006
- Table 3: Market share of consumer credit balances outstanding by
product line, 2002-2006
- Table 4: Consumer credit gross advances split by product, 2002-2006
- Table 5: Market share of gross advances in the consumer credit market
by product line, 2002-2006
- Table 6: New and used car POS motor finance balances outstanding,
2002-2006
- Table 7: New and used car POS motor finance gross advances, 2002-2006
- Table 8: New car finance gross advances by product line, 2002-2006
- Table 9: Used car finance gross advances by product line, 2002-2006
- Table 10: Retail finance balances outstanding by product line,
2002-2006
- Table 11: Retail finance gross advances by product line, 2002-2006
- Table 12: Forecast performance of the consumer credit market drivers
under the neutral scenario, 2005-2011f
- Table 13: Consumer credit forecasts under a neutral view of the
economy, 2006-2011f
- Table 14: Forecast performance of the consumer credit market drivers
under the pessimistic scenario, 2005-2011f
- Table 15: Consumer credit forecasts under a pessimistic view of the
economy, 2006-2011f
- Table 16: Forecast performance of the consumer credit market drivers
under the optimistic scenario, 2005-2011f
- Table 17: Consumer credit forecasts under an optimistic view of the
economy, 2006-2011f
- Table 18: 12 month year-on-year change in UK house prices, January
2002-December 2006
- List of Figures
- Figure 1: Advances dropped by 4.5 per cent in 2006, though balances
grew by a small amount, 2002-2006
- Figure 2: Consumer confidence continued to fall through 2006, May 2004
-December 2006
- Figure 3: The housing market performed significantly above
expectations in 2006, January 2002-December 2006
- Figure 4: Unsecured personal loans experienced the strongest growth
over the last five years, 2002-2006
- Figure 5: Unsecured personal loans have gained an extra share of 6.8
per cent in the last five years while credit cards, motor and retail
finance have all lost share, 2002-2006
- Figure 6: Except for overdrafts, new lending on all consumer credit
products suffered from a poor performance in 2006, 2002-2006
- Figure 7: Credit cards and overdrafts have gained share while
unsecured personal loans have lost share, 2002-2006
- Figure 8: The share of used car finance within the motor finance
market declined slightly in 2006, 2002-2006
- Figure 9: Gross lending in both the new and used car finance markets
declined in 2006, 2002-2006
- Figure 10: Reversing the trend somewhat, two of three retail finance
product lines saw growth in balances outstanding over 2006, 2002-2006
- Figure 11: Gross advances for all product lines within retail finance
have followed a downward trend since 2004, 2002-2006
- Figure 12: The consumer credit market will steadily increase and reach
£229.4 billion in 2011f, 2006-2011f
- Figure 13: Under the pessimistic scenario, the consumer credit market
will drop to a low of £199.8 billion in gross advances in 2007, 2006-2011f
- Figure 14: Under an optimistic view of the economy, the consumer
credit market will grow very strongly over the next five years, 2006-2011f
- Figure 15: Point of sale product aggregations used within this briefing
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