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市場調査レポート
英国の個人向けローン市場：2009年
UK Personal Lending 2009
| 発行 |
Datamonitor |
| 出版日 |
2009年10月 |
商品コード |
102086 |
| ページ情報 |
英文 107 pages |
| 価格 |
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Abstract
Introduction
The recession in the UK has impacted lending considerably and the consumer
credit landscape is now very different to what it was a year ago. However,
with change comes opportunity, and with signs of a slow but steady recovery on
the horizon, lenders will need to move quickly to take advantage of the
improving consumer sentiment in the economy.
Scope of this research
- Covers unsecured personal loans, credit cards, overdrafts, motor finance
and retail finance in the UK with the main focus on unsecured personal loans.
- Provides forecasts under 3 different scenarios for the consumer credit
market as a whole as well as for individual product lines.
- Includes market share data for 2008 for major personal loan providers and
examines the latest competitor developments shaping the market.
- Provides discussion and analysis of several key issues facing UK consumer
credit lenders.
Research and analysis highlights
The UK personal lending market has suffered considerably over the past year.
Lending has declined across all product lines, and many lenders have left the
market entirely. While some signs of recovery are on the horizon, the supply
of credit is still restricted, and perhaps more importantly, consumers are
reducing borrowing and debt obligations.
Datamonitor expects conditions to remain tough throughout 2009 and 2010 before
improving in 2011. Datamonitor' s expectation is of an overall contraction of
around 12% in the market from £192.9 billion to £170 billion
between 2008 and 2009.
The competitive landscape has also shrunk considerably. In June 2008, there
were 46 lenders offering unsecured personal loans, down from 58 in June 2007,
however, by June 2009 this number had dropped further to just 37.
Key reasons to purchase this research
- Gain access to the latest market sizing and forecasting data for the UK
consumer credit market to place your performance in context to the market' s.
- Gain insight into how your competitors are responding to the various
issues facing the unsecured lending sector.
- Receive updated market share data to tell you how your company compares to
your closest rivals.
Table of Contents
OVERVIEW
THE UK CONSUMER CREDIT MARKET IN 2008 AND FUTURE OUTLOOK
- The consumer credit market deteriorated over 2008
- The consumer credit market performed poorly in 2008, but although
lending was weakened considerably, balances outstanding began to fall
- Savings and investments declined in 2008 as consumers dip into their
balances to pay off debt
- The credit crunch and recession continue to impede the functioning of the
consumer credit market
- Base rate cuts during 2008 have failed to help Britain climb out of
recession
- Lenders have become more conservative in order to cope with the economic
downturn
- Despite attempts to cut their spending, many consumers need to keep
borrowing
- Most credit products saw modest falls in gross lending during 2008
- Consumers continue to fund short-term borrowing needs with their credit
cards
- Unsecured personal loans declined dramatically over 2008
- Gross advances on overdrafts have stayed relatively stable over 2008
- The last quarter of 2008 saw a sharp decline in point of sale retail
finance
- Point of sale motor finance fell dramatically in the second half of 2008
- Personal loans have strengthened their market share over the past five
years
- The reduction in consumer credit slowed in the first quarter of 2009
- The consumer credit market declined for the fifth consecutive period in
Q1 2009
- The rate of decline seen across unsecured personal loans and motor
finance slowed in Q1 2009
- Despite drastic moves by the Bank of England, lenders and borrowers are
shying away from credit products
- The Bank of England has moved towards a policy of quantitative easing
- Lenders continue to pursue conservative strategies as the prevailing
economic conditions remain difficult
- Consumers are becoming more aware of the need to organize their finances
- Datamonitor expects conditions to remain tough during 2009 and 2010 before
improving in 2011
- Datamonitor' s forecasting model explained
- Further falls in GDP and soaring unemployment show that the UK economy
remains in turmoil
- Under the Datamonitor scenario, all credit products will have a
difficult 2009
- Datamonitor has also considered two additional scenarios
- The government is introducing new measures to regulate the consumer credit
market
- The government is looking to prevent the unsolicited raising of credit
card limits
- The OFT is conducting a review on the fairness of competition in the
consumer credit market
- Consumers are turning to loan sharks in desperation as the credit crunch
continues to bite
COMPETITIVE DYNAMICS IN THE UK PERSONAL LENDING MARKET
- Unsecured personal lending levels contracted in 2008 as the market
remained tough
- The unsecured personal lending market had five larger players and a
fringe of smaller players in 2008
- Lloyds Banking Group was the market leader in terms of balances
outstanding
- Competitive pressures remain low as loan providers direct their focus
internally
- The number of unsecured personal lenders has declined further over the
last year
- Financial institutions are adopting a prudent approach to their lending
policy
- For the largest lenders in particular, cross-selling to existing
customers is a favored practice, used in order to avoid taking on more risk
- The average interest rate for a £5,000 loan has increased despite
the plummeting base rates
- Advertising expenditure has also dropped as a result of the credit crunch
- Innovation in the UK personal lending market remains fairly minimal
- High levels of bad debt and the new PPI ruling are hurdles that lenders
need to overcome
- Bad debt levels remain high but are now at a manageable level
- The ban on the selling of single premium PPI will lead to lenders
finding other ways to recoup their outlay
- The current market conditions are impacting on the dynamics of other
players in the market
- Aggregators have been an important player in the market but they are
losing their influence under current market conditions
- The payday loan industry has taken advantage of the current market
conditions
COLLECTIONS AND DEBT MANAGEMENT IN UK PERSONAL LENDING
- The personal loan market is bracing itself for rising impairments
- Personal loan balances have grown partially due to higher default rates
- Arrears and delinquency rates will continue to rise during the recession
- Impairment provisions will continue to grow as banks adapt to the
worsening economic climate
- Growing unemployment will result in a larger non-standard population
adversely affecting impairments
- Prevention of bad debts is better than the cure in the current climate
- Most banks have similar methods for debt recovery and collection
- Determining customer intentions is crucial for future loan portfolio
performance
- Stringent lending policies are often the best way to minimize potential
defaults
- Financial advice could be one way to prevent borrowers from falling into
delinquency
- A delinquency needs to be identified and resolved as soon as possible
- Quick identification of arrears and delinquency is the most important
aspect of debt management
- Customer segmentation is vitally important in order to maximize debt
recovery
- There are three main solutions for borrowers who fall into repayment
difficulties
- Third party debt collection agencies are used once all other options are
exhausted
PERSONAL LENDING INNOVATIONS FROM ABROAD
- The UK personal loans market has been severely affected over the last 12
months
- Difficult conditions persist in the consumer credit market
- Restrictions are being introduced on the sale of Payment Protection
Insurance
- The majority of loans are now used for debt consolidation
- Banks must respond to these conditions through innovation and
differentiation
- Product design: some overseas banks offer loans secured against
non-property assets
- Banks in Asia offer debt secured against gold, equities and other assets
- The Retail Banking team view
- Customer segmentation: providers are increasingly targeting specific
segments such as students, lower income consumers and those seeking
‘green' loans
- National Australia Bank offers lower income consumers access to low cost
micro-loans
- The Retail Banking team view
- Danske Bank of Denmark offers low cost education loans to students with
children
- The Retail Banking team view
- Several banks offer low-cost unsecured loans for environmental purposes
- The Retail Banking team view
- Incentives: rewards can be used to encourage good behavior
- In Malaysia, EON Bank offers cashback to reward prompt repayments
- The Retail Banking team view
- Distribution: foreign banks make greater use of alternative channels for
loan applications
- Loan application via ATMs is commonplace in many other countries
- The Retail Banking team view
- New technology: Twitter emerges as the next big communications medium for
financial services companies
- Banks in the US and Australia experiment with ways to exploit the new
medium
- The Retail Banking team view
- Consumers overseas can request up-to-date loan information via mobile
banking
- The Retail Banking team view
- The Datamonitor view of the future of the UK unsecured loans market
- Restrictions on the sale of PPI will lead to costlier loans
- Loans will become more flexible in response to changing circumstances
- Greater emphasis will be placed on online distribution
BRAND VALUES IN UK PERSONAL LENDING
- The downturn has placed an emphasis on reducing advertising expenditure
- The credit crunch has severely affected the personal loan market
- Global brand strengths have fallen significantly in light of the
worsening financial situation
- A combination of changing market dynamics and lower liquidity levels
have forced personal loan advertising expenditure downwards
- Lenders have been more affected in the secured market.
- Innovative customer targeting will reap significant rewards despite the
bleak outlook
- To drive brand values at minimal costs banks need to appeal to
consumers' recessionary mindsets
- Targeting and promoting self-service products will appeal to the
Financial Intelligence Complexity
- Effective advertising should focus on safety and functionality to lessen
consumer worries
- Services and products need to satisfy the Authenticity Megatrend
- Adopting a more friendly advisory and assistance based approach to
customers develops better customer relationships
- A more personalized approach to product offerings is a win-win for banks
APPENDIX
- Supplementary data
- UK Consumer Credit Market in 2008 and Future Outlook
- Competitive Dynamics in the UK Personal Loan Market 2009
- Collections and Debt Management in UK Personal Lending
- Brand Values in UK Personal Lending
- Definitions
- General definitions
- Definitions of point of sale motor and retail finance products
- Methodology
- Forecasting methodology
- Choice of economic variables
- Model outputs
- Bespoke scenario based forecasting
- Further reading
- Ask the analyst
- Datamonitor consulting
- Disclaimer
TABLES
- Table: Quarterly total consumer credit gross advances and balances
outstanding in the UK, Q4 2006 - Q4 2008
- Table: Retail savings and investments in the UK, 2004 - 08, £m
- Table: Net inflows of retail savings and investments, 2004 - Q3 2008
- Table: UK consumer credit gross advances by product, Q4 2006 - Q4 2008
(£m)
- Table: Market share of consumer credit balances outstanding by product
line, 2004 - 08
- Table: Quarterly total consumer credit gross advances and balances
outstanding in the UK, Q1 2007 to Q1 2009
- Table: UK consumer credit gross advances by product, Q1 2007 to Q1 2009
(£m)
- Table: Datamonitor' s updated macroeconomic variables for 2008 - 13:
Datamonitor scenario
- Table: Updated Datamonitor view consumer credit forecast by product line,
2008 - 13 (£ billion)
- Table: Datamonitor' s updated pessimistic consumer credit forecast by
product line, 2008 - 13 (£ billion)
- Table: Datamonitor' s updated optimistic consumer credit forecast by
product line, 2008 - 13 (£ billion)
- Table: Unsecured personal lenders in the UK, Moneyfacts June 2009
- Table: Loan impairment provisions for the main high street banks, 2005 - 07
- Table: The top 10 global brand values, 2008
- Table: The top 10 personal loan advertisers, 2007 - 08
- Table: UK consumer credit balances outstanding by product, Q1 2007 to Q1
2009 (£m)
- Table: Datamonitor' s updated macroeconomic variables for 2008 - 13:
pessimistic scenario
- Table: Datamonitor' s updated macroeconomic variables for 2008 - 13:
optimistic scenario
- Table: Advertising spend for major providers, 2007 - 08
- Table: Comparison of monthly interest rates on a £5,000 loan
compared with the Bank of England base rate
- Table: Write-offs on consumer lending from UK banks and building societies
- Table: Average unsecured personal lending gross advances per person (over
18)
- Table: Extent to which consumers trust financial services companies
- Table: Loan provisions as a percentage of total lending, 2005 - 07
- Table: The non-standard population, 2004 - 08
- Table: UK non-standard population forecast under the Datamonitor view,
2008 - 13f
- Table: Total UK advertising expenditure by product line, 2004 - 08
- Table: Total UK advertising expenditure in 2008, H1 2008 - H2 2008
FIGURES
- Figure: Total consumer gross lending slumped over 2008 and the rate of
growth in balances outstanding started to decline in Q4 2008
- Figure: Savings and investments in the UK fell in 2008
- Figure: UK investors have pruned back their holdings in bonds, shares and
mutual funds
- Figure: There have been declines for most products, although overdrafts
saw relatively flat year-on-year growth throughout 2008
- Figure: Unsecured personal loans have continued to increase their market
share of balances over the past five years
- Figure: Both gross advances and balances outstanding continued to decline
on a year-on-year basis
- Figure: All products experienced negative year-on-year growth in Q1 2009
- Figure: The rate of interest paid for a loan of £5,000 grew by 44%
over two years
- Figure: The majority of respondents said they plan to save more in the
future
- Figure: The newly formed Lloyds Banking Group had a market leading share
of the gross advances in 2008
- Figure: Lloyds Banking Group has the largest share of balances outstanding
- Figure: Personal lending interest rates have increased significantly since
June 2008 despite sharp cuts in the Bank of England' s base rate
- Figure: Across most banking groups, advertising expenditure shrank between
2007 and 2008
- Figure: A fall in the level of write-offs in other unsecured lending
counteracted the increase in write-offs for credit cards and secured loans
- Figure: Despite strong performance in the credit card market, total
unsecured lending dropped continuously between 2004 and 2008
- Figure: Moneysupermarket.com lists all loans providers, but it does not
link to products where the provider has not paid a fee
- Figure: Online price comparison sites are more trusted than building
societies and banks
- Figure: The Wonga website emphasizes the convenience of the product
- Figure: Unsecured personal loan advances have been falling while balances
outstanding have grown, January 2007 - September 2008
- Figure: Only a few lenders increased their proportion of total loan
provisions for impairments, 2005 - 07
- Figure: 2008 witnessed a massive growth in the number of non-standard
individuals, 2004 - 08
- Figure: Under the Datamonitor view the non-standard population will
increase significantly over the next five years, 2008 - 13f
- Figure: Every bank aims to resolve a bad debt as quickly and effectively
as possible, 2009
- Figure: Lloyds TSB' s budget calculator aggregates all outgoings thus
providing a realistic budget representation for any consumer, 2009
- Figure: ICICI Bank in India offers a ‘Loan Against Securities'
- Figure: Garanti Bank can grant loans through its ATMs
- Figure: Bank of America is using Twitter to deal with customer enquiries
- Figure: Total financial services advertising expenditure fell by 15.8% in
2008, 2004 - 08
- Figure: Total advertising dropped by 22.4% throughout the second half of
2008
- Figure: Recessionary consumers' behavior is affected by a number of basic
drivers and inhibitors
- Figure: Bank of Scotland' s website provide a comprehensive source of
information for borrowers, 2009
- Figure: Online price comparison sites and banks are the most trusted
financial institutions, 2008
- Figure: First Direct' s ‘Enthuse' service explains products pure and
simple, 2009
- Figure: Virgin Money' s homepage illustrates how the bank can help simplify
financial services, 2009
- Figure: Point of sale product aggregations used within this briefing
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