インドのセメント生産能力は、2007年〜2011年の期間中CAGR14.5%で拡大し、2007年の約1億6600万トンから、2011年には約2億8600万トンへ成長しました。同期間中、セメントの消費量はCAGR8.6%で拡大し、結果として産業の稼働率は2007年の93%から2011年には73%へと低下しました。2015年末までに稼働率は71%程度に低下すると予測されています。
当レポートでは、インドのセメント産業について調査し、市場概要、需給状況、コストおよび競合情勢などを分析しており、市場予測および主要企業のプロファイルとともに、概略以下の構成でお届けします。
Abstract
Product mix expected to tilt towards OPC...
Indian cement industry had witnessed an implausible growth journey during the
period of FY06-10. This was mainly on account of the increased cement offtake
from the real estate, infrastructure and industrial construction activities.
Increased spending by the government on infrastructure activities coupled with
the growth in the real estate sector had led to increased appetite of cement
in past few years. The cement industry growth has surpassed the economic
growth rate of the country during this period consistently. Cement consumption
in the country grew at an average multiplication factor of approximately 1.2
times the GDP growth rate during the period FY 06-10.
In FY11, cement demand grew at moderate rate of 5% on yoy basis. The
multiplier of cement demand growth to the GDP growth declined below one. The
construction activities remained subdued in FY11 owing to various reasons like
prolonged monsoon, heavy winter, delay in execution of infrastructural
projects etc. which led to slowdown in cement offtake. The dismal performance
of the cement industry continued in FY12. The slowdown in the real estate
sector and delay in take off of the various infrastructural projects owing to
the spiralling cost of capital has hit the cement consumption in this fiscal.
During the first nine months of FY12, the cement demand grew at 5.3% on yoy
basis. However, the long term cement demand is expected to remain intact.
Increasing focus of GoI on the infrastructure development and promotion of low
cost affordable housing in the country will provide impetus to the growth of
cement consumption. CARE Research estimates the cement demand to grow at a
CAGR of 8.3% during the period FY12-15.
In the period FY08-11, the cement industry registered a double-digit growth in
capacity as compared to the moderate growth of 3-7% registered during the
period FY03-07. The cement production capacity of India grew at a CAGR of
14.5% from 166.7 mn tonnes at the end of FY07 to 286.4 mn tonnes at the end of
FY11. During the same period, the consumption of cement grew at a CAGR of
8.6%. Consequently, the industry's operating rate has shown a declining trend
from a level of 93% in FY07 to 73% in FY11. CARE Research expects the
operating rate of the industry to decline to a level of 71% by the end of FY15.
In FY11, the industry had witnessed a steep fall in the margins. The slowdown
in the cement demand coupled with the inability of the cement players to pass
on the rising cost led to drop in the margins. The profitability margins of
the cement industry have shown some improvement in FY12. Considering the first
nine months of FY12, the cement industry has witnessed a marginal improvement
in the margins despite of the rise in the cost. Despite of the supply glut
situation, the industry was able to pass on the increased cost burden to the
consumers on the back of the supply discipline followed by the cement players
in this fiscal. The PBDIT margin of the industry improved marginally to 21% in
FY12. Going forward, with the surplus capacities coming on stream, maintaining
the supply discipline is expected to become difficult for the industry. Cement
industry will not be able to hike prices in the next fiscal equivalent to the
increased cost burden. As a result, CARE Research expects PBDIT margin to
remain under pressure.
During the period of FY06-09, the product mix was skewed towards the blended
cement on the back of the tight demand and supply situation. The proportion of
blended cement in the product mix had increased from 61% in FY 06 to 75% in FY
09.
However, post FY09, with substantial capacity addition, a gradual shift was
observed in the product mix towards OPC. The proportion of blended cement in
the total product mix has declined from 75% in FY09 to 72% in FY11. This shift
in product mix by players may be considered as a step towards curtailing
excess supply situation prevailing in the industry. This can also be
attributable to rising cost of blending raw materials like fly ash.
OPC is used in making concrete for structures that require high compressive
strength like infrastructural projects. CARE Research believes this will help
the industry to reap the benefits of rising cement demand from infrastructural
projects as GoI has been keen on development of infrastructure in the country.
Going forward, most of the cement players are expected to switch from blended
cement to OPC.
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
SECTION- I CARE Research's OUTLOOK
- Outlook
- Overall projected Demand-Supply situation
- Region-wise projected Demand-Supply situation
- Cement demand drivers
- Capacity addition & Operating rate
- Cost structure & Margins
- Valuation & Consolidation
- Product Mix
SECTION- II INDUSTRY SECTION
- Overview
- Cement industry witnessed a slowdown in FY11 after an implausible
journey...
- Industry operating rate continued to fall...
- Cement price growth moderated in FY10 and remained under pressure in
FY11...
- Product Mix still dominated blended cements...
- Demand-Supply Analysis
- Overall Demand-Supply scenario
- Region-wise Demand-Supply scenario
- Detailed Regional Analysis
- Cost Analysis
- Power & Fuel cost
- Freight cost
- Raw material cost
- Market competition & Industry averages
- Industry Averages
- Market share of major players
SECTION- III COMPANY SECTION
- Company Profiles
- Associated Cement Company Ltd (ACC)
- Ambuja Cements Ltd
- India Cements Ltd
- Shree Cements Ltd
- UltraTech Cement Ltd
SECTION- IV ANNEXURES
- Industry Basics
- Types of Cement
- Cement Manufacturing process
- Industry Characteristics
- Key Statistics - Financial Performance
- Key Statistics - Operational Performance
- Raw Material Costs & Consumption
- List of Tables
SECTION - I CARE Research's OUTLOOK
- Outlook
- Overall projected demand-supply situation
- Region-wise projected demand-supply situation
- Cost Structure
- Fly ash cost per tonne
SECTION - II INDUSTRY SECTION
- Overview
- Status of Top 10 players (capacity-wise)
- Capacity addition by small & medium players
- Demand-Supply Analysis
- Cement Demand statistics
- Company-wise Exports
- Overall Inter-regional movement
- North- Inter-regional cement movement in FY11
- South-Inter-regional cement movement in FY11
- West-Inter-regional cement movement in FY11
- East-Inter-regional cement movement in FY11
- Central-Inter-regional cement movement in FY11
- Cost Analysis
- State-wise power tariffs
- Cost comparison of grid & captive power
- Company-wise captive power capacity addition announced
- Trend of government linkage of coal
- Alternate fuel consumption
- Per Tonne freight cost in FY11
- India's Limestone position
- Limestone cost
- Market competition & Industry Averages
- Industry averages
- Change in market share of cement companies
SECTION - III COMPANY SECTION
- Associated Cement Company Ltd (ACC)
- Plant-wise capacity
- Operating Parameters
- Financials
- Financial & Profitability Ratios
- Domestic Expansion plans
- Ambuja Cement Ltd
- Plant-wise capacity
- Operating Parameters
- Financials
- Financial & Profitability Ratios
- India Cements Ltd
- Plant-wise capacity
- Operating Parameters
- Financials
- Financial & Profitability Ratios
- UltraTech Cements Ltd
- Plant-wise capacity
- Operating Parameters
- Financials
- Financial & Profitability Ratios
- Domestic Expansion plans
- Shree Cements Ltd
- Plant-wise capacity
- Operating Parameters
- Financials
- Financial & Profitability Ratios
- Domestic Expansion plans
SECTION - IV ANNEXURES
- Industry Basics
- Per capita consumption
- Duty structure
- Key Statistics - Financial Performance
- Net Sales
- Operating Profit
- Net Profit
- Operating Profit margin
- Net Profit Margin
- Interest coverage ratio
- Key Statistics - Operational Performance
- Region-wise/state-wise production & capacity
- Region-wise/state-wise cement consumption
- State-wise surplus/deficit ratio
- Company-wise capacity
- Company-wise production
- Company-wise dispatch
- Total Export Scenario
- Clinker exports scenario
- Company-wise Cement exports
- Company-wise Clinker exports
- Company-wise product mix
- Overall product mix
- Region-wise product mix
- Company-wise dispatch mix
- Company-wise Cement dispatch mode
- All India cement dispatch mode
- Changes in Duty Structure
- Average cement prices
List of Graphs
SECTION - I CARE Research's OUTLOOK
- Outlook
- Planned investments under different infrastructure sub-segments
- Trend of capacity addition
- Projected capacity utilization trend
- Break-even cushion
- Trend of international coal prices
- Trend of diesel prices
- Projected Power & Fuel and Freight cost (per tonne)
- Trend of realisation
- Trend of PBDIT margin
- Valuations of major cement companies (as on March 2012)
- Change in product mix
SECTION - II INDUSTRY SECTION
- Overview
- Global trend of GDP and cement consumption
- Trend on Capacity, Production & Capacity Utilization
- Region-wise yearly average cement price trend
- Region-wise monthly price trend in FY12
- Change in product mix
- Trend of Conversion ratio
- Demand-Supply Analysis
- Trend of capacity addition
- Region-wise capacity utilization rate
- Regional statistics (FY11)
- Regional scenario in FY11
- Trend of production & consumption in the North region
- Change in Product mix
- Trend of conversion ratio (North)
- North - Position of top players at the end of FY 11 (based on capacity)
- Price trend in Delhi
- Trend of production and consumption in the South
- Change in Product mix
- Trend of conversion ratio (South)
- South - Position of top players at the end of FY 11 (based on capacity)
- Price trend in Chennai
- Trend of production & consumption in the West region
- Change in Product mix
- Trend of conversion ratio (West)
- West - Position of top players at the end of FY 11 (based on capacity)
- Price Trend in Mumbai
- Trend of production & consumption in the East region
- Change in Product mix
- Trend of conversion ratio (East)
- East - Position of top players at the end of FY 11 (based on capacity)
- Price trend in Kolkata
- Trend of production & consumption in the Central region
- Change in Product mix
- Trend of conversion ratio (Central)
- Central - Position of top players at the end of FY 11 (based on capacity)
- Cost Analysis
- Industry cost break-up (FY11)
- Power cost per unit (Industry Average)
- Trend of bifurcation of captive power capacity of the industry
- Consumption and import of coal by the cement industry
- Trend of cement dispatch mode mix
- Distribution of proven limestone reserves
- Market competition & Industry averages
- Trend of industry averages
- Market share of Major players (FY11)
- Change in market share of top 5 players (FY06 v/s FY11)
- Industry Basics
- Types of cement
- Cement manufacturing process
SECTION - III COMPANY SECTION
- Associated Cement Company Ltd (ACC)
- Ambuja Cement Ltd
- India Cements Ltd
- UltraTech Cements Ltd
- Shree Cements Ltd
