Abstract
This SupplierBusiness / Knibb Gormezano Partners report, covers Active Safety
Systems in Light Duty Vehicles including passenger cars, light trucks, SUVs
and MPVs. Road safety failures are a major stain on the record of an advanced
society. No better example of Society' s failure on the safety front is its
past inability to control and reduce death and injury on the roads.
This has been recognised by the European Commission and has resulted in a
number of major initiatives to improve safety with the short-term target of
halving the 40,000 annual death toll. Member states have also embarked on
their own plans in support of this objective. Improvements fall into a number
of categories:
- 1. Driver education and training
- 2. Stimulating improved crashworthiness of vehicles via programmes such as
EuroNCAP;
- 3. Supporting and promoting improved crash avoidance technology in
vehicles such as ESC;
- 4. Initiatives for better road design (e.g. EuroRAP);
- 5. Infrastructure improvements;
- 6. Vehicle to Infrastructure communications (e.g. e- Call);
- 7. Greater law enforcement effort targeted at driver behaviour;
- 8. More rigorous and extended forms of vehicle condition testing.
The current two-volume report focuses on point 3 and incorporates various
aspects under Point 6. Its puurpose is to provide a comprehensive overview and
some detailed analysis of the subject in terms of markets, technologies,
adoption rate forecasts and government policies. It is complemented by a
survey of stakeholder attitudes conducted by SupplierBusiness and available
separately.
This report into Active Safety Systems for light duty vehicles has been
undertaken in response to a growing interest among vehicle manufacturers,
systems and component suppliers, engineering design and testing services
companies, transport operators and regulatory bodies to find ways to reduce
road accidents involving passenger cars and make a significant contribution to
the European Commission' s target of halving road deaths by 2010 and to achieve
similar goals in the USA.
Vehicle manufacturers (OEMs) and suppliers are investing heavily in Active
Safety Systems despite prevailing economic conditions and KGP believes that
the time is right to examine, to what extent Active Safety Systems on
passenger cars might evolve over the coming years and, more importantly, to
what extent they might contribute to reductions in accident rates.
The research for this report was undertaken during the autumn of 2008 and
early 2009. This included study of the available and emerging Active Safety
Systems, interviews with manufacturers, suppliers, NGOs and legislators.
The aims were to provide:
- A route map for the introduction of active safety systems in passenger
cars and adoption rate scenarios;
- Observations on the impact of systems on accident avoidance;
- Suggested actions for the industry and regulatory bodies.
- Profiles of the key companies involved in the design and manufacture of
active safety systems worldwide.
Volume I covers an analysis of the market for active safety systems and a
forecast based on a combination of market demand expectations, industry
positioning, technology readiness level and legislative trends. It also
exposes five issues in policymaking, which appear to be contradictory and
impediments to faster application. Some solutions are suggested.
It describes the Stakeholders involved: the degree of their involvement in
infrastructure, vehicle and driver issues compared to safety systems and
components. and their attitudes; in particular the central role of the EU and
the various EU bodies dedicated to the promotion of active safety systems. It
lists the current position of the EU relating to each safety system. Other
stakeholders roles examined are those of academic institutions, road safety
test laboratories and tracks, consumer road safety lobbies, consultancies,
publications, insurance industry, car makers and component manufacturers.
Some key stakeholders have been extremely active in assessing the impact of
active safety systems: a chapter examines issues related to the insurance
industry, type approval, testing in service, driver training. It also covers
motivators for vehicle buyers to purchase safety systems, the rationale of
choice and the role of fleets. A chapter touches on the evolution of the
technologies including Human Machine Interface, Vehicle to Vehicle, Vehicle to
Infrastructure and Pure Infrastructure based projects. The effectiveness of
Active safety systems is examined based on R&D results.
The main areas of investigation are Europe and North America, however,
reference is made to developments in the other major markets in Japan, Brazil,
Russia, India, China, where relevant to the project.
A chapter covers issues that affect market development with a discussion on
influences that can drive change. Another chapter covers arguments in favour
of mandation, the context of the macroeconomy, how microeconomic trends affect
the car industry, progression in technology, accident rates, the influence of
system cost, competition between safety systems, the influence of vehicle
segmentation, the views of car makers, systems suppliers and traders.
The report also looks at which segment of the supply chain can benefit from
active safety systems, promotion, advertising and marketing issues, the role
of supply push,demand pull and tipping point.
Table of Contents
FOREWORD 4
- Other factors which complicate matters 4
- CO2 improvement aims can cause potential conflicts 4
- Some vehicle safety failures result from ageing equipment 4
INTRODUCTION 10
- Scope 10
- Scope of active safety systems researched 11
- Forecast Horizon 11
- Active safety systems - definition 11
- Links between Active and Passive safety systems 11
- Market 12
- Audience 12
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 13
- Active safety systems are emerging as effective tools in product
differentiation 13
- But currently there is a limited commercial argument for active safety
systems 13
- Low levels of consumer awareness hold back market penetration 14
- Government intervention is yet to be effective 14
- There is a lack of accident causation data 15
- The insurance industry is now more keen to give incentives 15
- Conditions for technology development are far from optimised 15
- There are significant concerns over reliability 15
- Europe and North America are distinctly different markets 16
- There are conflicting interests between supplier intellectual property
protection and
- rapid market penetration 16
- Interventions to increase the rate of active safety systems development
and deployment 16
- Actions by Car Manufacturers 17
- Marketing to consumers 17
- Realignment of R&D resources 17
- Collaboration on standard setting and testing 17
- Common electronic architectures 17
- Lower development risk for key suppliers 18
- Actions by suppliers 18
- Marketing, advertising, promotion 18
- Feature decoupling 18
- Increasing collaboration 18
- Actions for governments to increase the rate of active safety systems
deployment 18
- Pressure on the insurance industry 19
- International cooperation on standards 19
- Reducing the risks of litigation and product liability 19
- Better statistical accident causation and system effectiveness data 19
ACTIVE SAFETY SYSTEMS ROUTEMAP 20
SPECIAL CRITIQUES 21
- 1 A critique of the rate of adoption of active safety devices 21
- Stakeholders' Aim: increase the rate of adoption of ADAS to reduce
fatality rates 21
- Stakeholders' End Result 2009 21
- 2 A critique of the concept of the Intelligent Car versus the Vienna
Convention 22
- 3 A critique of the safety systems selected: 22
- Appropriateness of systems 22
- But the reality has to be accepted 22
- Suggested solution 22
- 4 A critique of the method of information dissemination 23
- The public continues to lack awareness Providing information on ASS is
primarily left to: 23
- Where does this leave the component makers? 23
- Suggested solution 23
- 5 A critique of the politics of cost 23
- Suggested solution 24
THE ROLE OF ACTIVE SAFETY SYSTEMS 25
- The relative positions of each of the various active safety systems in the
hierarchy of an
- accident, are summarised in the following table: Forecasts for Active
Safety Systems 25
- Forecasts for Active Safety Systems 26
- Active Safety System Market Penetration - European Union 26
- Active Safety System Market Penetration - United States 28
FORECASTS FOR KEY ACTIVE SAFETY SYSTEMS 30
COST VERSUS BENEFIT OF ACTIVE SAFETY SYSTEMS 36
DISCUSSION OF KEY ISSUES: THE STAKEHOLDERS 38
- Introduction 38
- Infrastructure 39
- Vehicle 39
- Driver 40
- Safety Systems and Components 40
- The role of the EC 41
- eSafety Support 42
- eSafety Forum 42
- TRACE Research Project 43
- TRACE covered 5 stages of research: 43
- Variances by market 44
- Scope of TRACE 44
- Variances by driver behaviour 45
- TRACE conclusions 46
- eIMPACT 46
- Summary of Combined Results 47
- EC Regulations, mandation procedures, legislation status and plans 48
THE ROLE OF NON GOVERNMENTAL ORGANISATIONS (NGOS) & ACADEMIC INSTITUTES 52
- Introduction 52
- Universities, Technical Colleges 52
- RWTH Aachen 52
- Technische Universitat Carolo-Wilhelmina zu Braunschweig 53
- TUM Technical University Munich Germany 54
- FHS Hamburg (Hamburg University of Applied Science) Germany 55
- Universitat Stuttgart, Germany 55
- TU Darmstadt, Germany 55
- Hochschule Karlsruhe Technik & Wirtschaft, Germany 55
- Lulea University, Lulea Sweden 56
- University of Leeds 56
- University of Loughborough 56
- Imperial College London 56
- Eidgenossische Technische Hochschule (ETH) Zurich, Switzerland 56
- VTT Finland 57
- Chalmers University Sweden 57
- Road Safety Test Laboratories and Tracks 57
- Thatcham 57
- MIRA Ltd 58
- Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research (TNO) 58
- Transport Research Laboratory (TRL) 59
- Technische Uberwachungs Verein (TUV) 59
- DEKRA 59
- Societe Generale de Surveillance (SGS) 60
- Consumer Oriented Lobbies 60
- Road Safety Lobbies 62
- Independent Consultancies 63
- ADAS 63
- Knibb Gormezano Partners (KGP) 63
- Publications 63
- The Insurance Industry 64
- The Car Manufacturers 65
- The Component Manufacturing Industry 67
MARKET ISSUES 68
- Insurance Industry Issues 68
- Introduction 68
- Summary of findings 73
- Who is responsible if an active safety system does not perform as it is
designed to do? 73
- A higher level of adoption of ASS will reduce collision damage, fatalities
and injuries
- and lead to a loss of business for the insurance industry 74
- How does the insurance industry assess risk? 74
- Risks of Active Safety Systems 74
- Benefits of Active Safety Systems 75
- In-vehicle data presentation 75
- Type Approval Issues 77
- Testing In Service 78
- Changes on Vehicles and Repair Behaviour of Car Users 78
- Driver Training 80
- Consumer Acceptance and Marketing 81
- Driver psychology 81
- The Fleet Market Perspective 88
EVOLUTION OF ACTIVE SAFETY TECHNOLOGIES 90
- Human-Machine Interface (HMI) 90
- Vehicle to Vehicle Technologies (V2V) 90
- Infrastructure To Vehicle Technologies (I2V) 90
- Pure Infrastructure Projects 91
ACTIVE SAFETY SYSTEMS EFFECTIVENESS 92
- Accident Reduction Effectiveness Ranking 92
- The Cost-Benefit Relationship According To The Motorist 93
- The motorist' s perspective: aspirations 93
- The motorist' s perspective: real world concerns 94
REGIONAL DIFFERENCES 95
- Introduction 95
- Western Europe 95
- Consumer perception and preferences 95
- North America 99
- Japan 101
- Brazil 101
- Russia 102
- India 103
- China 104
MARKET DEVELOPMENT ISSUES 106
- Driving Forces for Change: Influencing the Market 106
- The Argument in Favour of Mandatory Regulation 106
- Macroeconomic Trends 107
- Microeconomic Trends 108
- Microeconomic Trends as they affect the Vehicle Manufacturing Sector 109
- Short term 109
- Medium term 109
- Long term 109
- Technology Progress 110
- Accident Rates: An International Comparison 110
- System Cost and Influence on Market Penetration 112
- The Influence of Vehicle Segmentation and Market Demand Patterns On
Adoption
- Rates For Active Safety Technologies 115
- Competition Between Active Safety Systems and the Influence On Adoption
Rates 115
- Vehicle Manufacturers' Perspective 116
- The System Suppliers' Perspective 118
- The Retail Trade and Specialist or Garage Fitment Service Position 121
- Which Segment Of The Supply Chain Could Benefit From Active Safety
Systems? 122
- Promotion, Advertising, Marketing Issues 125
- Supply Push 125
- Demand Pull 126
- The Tipping Point 127
APPENDIX 130
GLOSSARY OF ACRONYMS 136
List of Figures
- Figure 1: The Role of Active Safety Systems 28
- Figure 2: Active Safety Systems Routemap - Electronic Stability Control
33
- Figure 3: Active Safety Systems Routemap - TPMS Estimated Penetration 34
- Figure 4: Active Safety Systems Routemap - Curve Adaptive Lighting 35
- Figure 5: Active Safety Systems Routemap - Electronic Brake Assist
(Emergency Braking Assist) Estimated Penetration 36
- Figure 6: Active Safety Systems Routemap - Blind Spot Monitoring System
37
- Figure 7: Active Safety Systems Routemap - Collision Warning and
Avoidance Systems 37
- Figure 8: Active Safety Systems Routemap - Lane Departure Warning
Systems 38
- Figure 9: Cost v Benefit of Active Safety Systems 40
List of Tables
- Table 1: ASS Timeline 24
- Table 2: Table - Market penetration scenario: forecast installation rate
in the European Union (% of new registrations). 30
- Table 3: Market penetration scenario: forecast installation rate in North
America (% of new registrations) 32
- Table 4: Degree of stakeholder involvement in the three main safety
environments compared to systems and components 43
- Table 5: TRACE research programme stages 48
- Table 6: Reasons for crash by major EC market 48
- Table 7: Safety systems evaluated by TRACE 48
- Table 8: Most Frequent Driver Failures 49
- Table 9: Safety systems evaluated by eIMPACT 50
- Table 10: Table - Current Status of EC eSafety position 53
- Table 11: Development of Breakdowns Involving on Board Electronics in
Vehicles. 75
- Table 12: The Insurance Industry view of accident prevention benefit,
through the use of Active Safety Systems. 80
- Table 13: Ranking of priorities in vehicle attributes 92
- Table 14: Expected safety benefits of the priority systems, based on
research results and expert assessments. 96
- Table 15: Global Accident Data. Comparison of Fatality Rates 115
- Table 16: Table - Estimated Average Cost of Safety Systems 117
- Table 17: Suitability for fitment by outlet. 127
- Table 18: EC funded projects under the Framework FP6 Programme 134
